DECENTRALAND

Path Forward.

Three strategic bets for product reinvention.

Strategic analysis
MAY 2026
REALITY CHECK

What is working against us.

~3K
Daily active users today
$0.10
MANA price, down 37% in 90 days
100×
Gap vs even the smallest comparable platform
4 years
Post-launch, thesis hasn't delivered

Doing nothing is the highest-risk option.

ASSETS

What we keep — and why it's still valuable.

01

Unity engine

Battle-tested, multi-platform, the strongest creator tooling stack in any real-time 3D platform. Hard to replicate from scratch.

02

Backend services

Catalysts, comms, identity, content servers, marketplace API. Years of compounded engineering investment.

03

Blockchain — invisible

Account abstraction. NFTs + creator royalties run on-chain; users pay with card and never see a wallet.

EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

How we evaluate each bet.

Fourteen dimensions covering the strategic thesis, market reality, execution feasibility, and what we need to decide right now.

01 · North star
02 · Problem we solve
03 · Audience / persona
04 · Product reality
05 · Market & TAM
06 · Competition
07 · Unfair advantage
08 · Why now
09 · Growth strategy
10 · Monetization + unit economics
11 · Main risks + kill criteria
12 · Stakeholder alignment (DAO, MANA, LAND)
13 · Team + Foundation execution
14 · Timeline + decision needed

Every option below is scored against all fourteen.

THE THREE BETS

Three options, two not mutually exclusive.

Each targets a different audience, revenue model, and degree of break from today's DCL.

01 · STAGE

Live shows for mid-tier artists

Ticketed virtual concerts with a GaaS retention layer (battle pass, seasons, fan progression). Shopify for live shows, with Fortnite's engagement engine.

Hybrid · Hard pivot
02 · CAMPUS

Immersive learning for institutions

Multiplatform virtual classrooms + simulations. Sold to L&D and universities. GaaS mechanics port over for retention.

B2B SaaS · Soft pivot
03 · FORUM

Stage + Campus on one engine

Two products, shared Unity core, shared creator marketplace, shared GaaS retention engine. 70% engineering reuse.

Hybrid · Hard pivot
OPTION 1 · STAGE

The opportunity.

A mid-tier live performance market that every prior metaverse attempt structurally abandoned.

THE PROBLEM

Mid-tier artists have engaged-but-distributed fanbases (10K–1M fans across 5+ countries) and zero infrastructure to monetize them globally.

Fortnite shows are closed off (only top 0.01% qualify). Twitch is a webcam. Bandcamp Listening Parties are audio only. Touring is too expensive.

Travis Scott made $20M with one Fortnite show. An artist with 200K Spotify listeners can't make 1% of that today.

WHO IT'S FOR

Artist side

Lucio · 28 · indie musician in Buenos Aires. 80K monthly Spotify listeners. Fans in Chile, Mexico, Spain he can't tour to. Wants 4 virtual shows/year.

Fan side

Sofía · 24 · Bogotá. Fan of Lucio since 2022. Listens 4×/week. Would pay $8 for an intimate virtual show. Already buys K-pop photocards monthly.

STRATEGIC POSITIONING
LEGACY
Hard pivot · leverages DCL events DNA
REVENUE
Hybrid · artists + fans pay
PRIMARY PLATFORM
Web (fans) + Desktop (artists)
TIME TO REVENUE
~12 months
TAM PROXY
$34B live music industry
OPTION 1 · STAGE

Where we play, and why we can win.

$34B
Global live music industry (2024)
$4-7B
Virtual events subset by 2030
5,000+
Target mid-tier artists (10K–1M fans)
1.35M
Visitors to a single Vket event in VRChat — proof live virtual events scale
COMPETITION
Fortnite / Roblox
Closed to most artists. Top tier only.
Wave
Pivoted away from B2C; now SaaS.
Sansar / Sensorium
Shut down or dormant.
Twitch / YouTube Live
Not 3D. Not immersive.
VRChat events
Real threat — large audience, but lacks structured ticketing tools.
UNFAIR ADVANTAGE
Events DNA. Music Festival + Fashion Week + Art Week — DCL has run these. The institutional muscle is real.
Creator economy ready. Marketplace + 97.5% creator share + royalties already plumbed in. Most competitors need to build this.
Mid-tier focus. Building product for the segment Fortnite ignores and Twitch can't serve.
WHY NOW
The Sutanmi effect. One streamer moved Japan from 13% → 27% of VRChat traffic in 2 years. Single-creator catalyst is real.
Account abstraction matured. Web3 payments + wallets can finally be invisible. Card checkout, no friction.
VRChat is winning the gap. 149K concurrent users NYE 2025, +9% YoY. If we wait two years, they own this.
OPTION 1 · STAGE

How we win.

PRODUCT
1

Artist picks template

Club, amphitheater, surreal space — or licenses one from a creator.

2

Schedules + tickets

Capacity 50–50K. Pricing tiers. Promotion via artist's channels.

3

Performs live

From PC, webcam + light mocap. Avatar performs in 3D.

4

Fans buy + attend

Web link, no download. Spatial audio. Merch live.

GROWTH STRATEGY
Artist-led acquisition. Sign managers/labels. Each artist brings their audience. CAC ≈ zero.
Creator rev share. Artist keeps 80%+ of tickets, 90% of merch. Best rate in any virtual platform.
Monthly Stage Festival. Cross-pollinate audiences. Curate 8 artists per event. Free showcase.
Distribution via partner stacks. Integrate with Spotify, Shopify, Discord. Native, not parallel.
MONETIZATION + UNIT ECONOMICS
18%
ticket take
15%
digital merch take
20%
tips / superchat
$12/mo
fan battle pass (GaaS)
$26M ARR

$14M from events (tickets/merch/tips) + $12M from GaaS subscription layer at 60K fan subscribers.

OPTION 1 · STAGE · RETENTION ENGINE

Stage is event-driven. GaaS makes it engagement-driven.

Without a retention layer, Stage is transactional — fan buys ticket, attends, leaves. The benchmarks (Roblox $1.18 ARPU/mo, Disney Dreamlight $2.44/mo, VRChat $1–3.75/mo) are all monthly because they have engagement loops. Stage needs the same.

FAN BATTLE PASS

$12/month subscription

Sofía pays $12/mo and unlocks: exclusive fandom cosmetics tied to Lucio's brand, after-party access, merch discounts, behind-the-scenes content in avatar form. Converts the one-off ticket into recurring revenue between shows.

THEMED SEASONS

Monthly content cadence

Electronic month. Indie rock month. K-pop month. Each season has world theming, wearable drops, 4–8 curated artists. Solves the "what happens between Lucio's shows" problem and gives marketing a predictable calendar.

FAN PROGRESSION

XP, tiers, social proof

Casual Fan → Superfan → Insider. Earn XP from attending, spending, bringing friends. Unlock concrete things: meet-and-greet priority, badges visible to other fans. Distributed Sutanmi effect — every fan becomes the artist's marketer.

LIVE OPS CALENDAR

Predictable cadence

Not "shows when an artist wants to book." A monthly rhythm: Stage Festival week 1, season drop week 2, special event week 3. Gives the team rhythm, users routine, and BD a structured slot to sell.

~2× blended ARPU

Without GaaS: ~$5–8/year per active fan (one-off tickets). With GaaS: $12/mo × 30% conversion of 200K active fans = additional $8–12M ARR on top of events revenue. Stage ceiling moves from $14M to $26M+.

"Stage without GaaS is a ticketing platform. Stage with GaaS is a fan engagement platform. The difference is roughly 2× ARR ceiling and 10× retention."

OPTION 1 · STAGE

How we deliver — and what could kill it.

MAIN RISKS + KILL CRITERIA
Artist acquisition fails. If we can't sign 20 artists in the first 6 months, the model has no demand-side.
VRChat extends ticketing tools first. They have the audience; if they ship structured ticketing, we lose the wedge.
Virtual ticketing regulation. Some jurisdictions treat virtual event tickets as securities. Needs legal scoping per market.
KILL CRITERIA: <10 paid shows/month at month 9, OR avg attendance <30, OR take rate <15% after artist negotiation.
STAKEHOLDER ALIGNMENT
DAO
Friendly
Creator-positive narrative, high rev share — easy DAO vote.
MANA holders
Friendly
MANA used invisibly as settlement layer; transaction volume grows token utility.
LAND holders
Friendly
Stages can sit on premium LAND parcels — validates LAND value.
TEAM
40–60 people

Live event tech + real-time streaming + BD with labels/managers + live ops. Closer to Splash + a gaming studio than a metaverse team.

FOUNDATION EXECUTION
Within mandate

Aligned with DCL's creator-first thesis. Regenesis Labs can sign artist contracts. May need new revenue-share governance proposal for take rate.

TIMELINE
12 months

to first paid show. ~24 months to $5M ARR. ~30 months to $14M ARR.

OPTION 2 · CAMPUS

The opportunity.

Institutions are stuck with Zoom for what should be immersive learning. Every adjacent player has retreated or died.

THE PROBLEM

Zoom won corporate training by accident.

Nobody wanted Zoom — they wanted "not flying everyone to a hotel". But Zoom is bad at simulations, skill practice, and presence.

Mozilla Hubs died. Engage VR is clunky and headset-locked. Microsoft Mesh is locked to Teams. Nobody covers multiplatform + Unity-grade simulations + LMS integration.

WHO IT'S FOR

Carolina · VP L&D · multinational insurer

$2–5M annual training budget. Frustrated with Zoom + in-person training cost.

Roberto · Dean of e-learning · online uni

40K students. KPI: dropout rate, NPS. Wants social retention.

Ana · Founder · coding bootcamp

800 students/cohort. Wants to differentiate from 50 identical bootcamps.

STRATEGIC POSITIONING
LEGACY
Soft pivot · DCL brand is neutral
REVENUE
B2B SaaS · enterprise contracts
PRIMARY PLATFORM
Desktop + Web (mobile complementary)
TIME TO REVENUE
18–24 months (long sales cycle)
TAM PROXY
$370B corporate training
OPTION 2 · CAMPUS

Where we play, and why we can win.

$370B
Global corporate training market
$250B
Higher-ed e-learning (14% CAGR)
$32B
VR/AR enterprise training by 2030
0.5%
Capture target = $125M ARR
COMPETITION
Mozilla Hubs
Shut down by Mozilla in 2024.
Engage VR
Headset-required. Clunky.
Spatial.io
Pivoted to art/events.
VictoryXR
Rigid product, US-only.
Microsoft Mesh
Teams-locked. Bad simulations.
UNFAIR ADVANTAGE
Multiplatform from day 1. Headset optional. Works on every laptop. Adoption ceiling is 50× higher than VR-only competitors.
Unity stack overbuilt for this. DCL's engine was built for open-world streaming. For bounded classrooms and labs, it's actually overpowered.
Real LMS integration. Native Canvas/Moodle/SAP plugin. Sales cycle drops from 12 months to 4.
WHY NOW
Post-pandemic shift is permanent. L&D budgets for digital training grew 30%+ vs 2019, with no rollback.
VR/AR enterprise market 6×ing. From $5B to $32B by 2030 (PwC). Capture window is open now.
Mozilla's exit opened space. Their shutdown created a vacuum in academic immersive learning — universities are actively shopping.
OPTION 2 · CAMPUS

How we win.

PRODUCT — THREE MODES
01

Synchronous classroom

Teacher + 30 students. Whiteboard, breakouts, physical presence. The entry door — not defensible alone.

02

Lab / simulation

Medical intubations, KYC role-play, engine teardown. The defensible layer. Unity excels here.

03

Persistent campus

Building where students hang between classes. Tackles 60% e-learning dropout rate.

GROWTH STRATEGY
Land-and-expand. One department → whole institution. Common B2B motion.
Simulation marketplace. Third-party devs build vertical sims (medical, defense). 25% take.
LMS integration partnerships. Canvas, Moodle, SAP — pre-built plugins drop CAC dramatically.
Research-backed case studies. Publish papers on retention impact. B2B buyers need evidence.
MONETIZATION + UNIT ECONOMICS
$20–80
per seat/year — corporate
$10–30
per seat/year — higher-ed bulk
$50K–500K
setup + custom content fees
20–25%
marketplace take on third-party sims
$50M ARR target

100 enterprise clients + 30 universities. NRR >100%. Multi-year contracts.

OPTION 2 · CAMPUS

How we deliver — and what could kill it.

MAIN RISKS + KILL CRITERIA
Enterprise sales cycle is 12–18 months. Cash burn while waiting for first six-figure contracts to close.
Microsoft Mesh undercuts on price. Bundled with Teams seats already paid for. Hard to dislodge on cost alone.
Headset adoption stays flat. Some premium simulations need VR; if Quest 3S adoption stalls, upper tier of pricing is capped.
KILL CRITERIA: <3 paying enterprise clients by month 18, OR avg ACV <$50K, OR sales cycle >24 months.
STAKEHOLDER ALIGNMENT
DAO
Neutral
B2B doesn't conflict with creator-first ethos but doesn't reinforce it either.
MANA holders
Tension
B2B SaaS uses USD invoicing, not MANA. Token utility doesn't grow proportionally.
LAND holders
Friendly
Universities/companies can buy LAND for persistent campuses — new institutional demand.
TEAM
50–80 people

Unity simulation engineers + enterprise backend (SSO/SOC2/LMS) + B2B sales reps + customer success. Enterprise SaaS DNA. Almost all new hires.

FOUNDATION EXECUTION
Needs new structure

Foundation lacks B2B contracting muscle. Regenesis Labs covers basics; full B2B sales org likely needs a separate entity with DAO oversight.

TIMELINE
18–24 months

to first major contract. ~30 months to $10M ARR. ~36 months to $50M ARR.

OPTION 3 · FORUM

The opportunity.

Stage + Campus share 70% of the engineering. Building both is structurally cheaper than building either alone.

THE PROBLEM

Two products, one engine.

Stage and Campus need the same hard things: low-latency multi-user Unity, broadcast-quality avatar streaming, ticketing, creator tools, content marketplace.

Building it twice is wasteful. Pointing two GTM motions at one engine is asymmetric.

Plus talent crosses naturally — a musician hosts a songwriting workshop; a professor brings a celebrity guest lecturer.

WHO IT'S FOR

Forum serves the entire audience of Stage and the entire audience of Campus — and adds a third class of users.

Stage audience

Mid-tier artists and their fans (Lucio + Sofía).

Campus audience

L&D buyers, deans, bootcamp founders (Carolina + Roberto + Ana).

Cross-pollinated audience

Artists teaching paid masterclasses; professors giving keynote talks at Stage events.

STRATEGIC POSITIONING
LEGACY
Hard pivot · combined assets
REVENUE
Hybrid · B2C + B2B
PRIMARY PLATFORMS
All three (web, mobile, desktop)
TIME TO REVENUE
12 months (Stage first)
TAM PROXY
$34B + $370B combined
OPTION 3 · FORUM

One foundation, two surfaces.

The architecture that makes Forum cheaper than building either alone — and harder for any single-vertical competitor to replicate.

STAGE

Mid-tier artist shows · ticketing · merch

CAMPUS

Classrooms · simulations · persistent campus

GAAS RETENTION ENGINE

Fan battle pass · themed seasons · progression XP · live ops calendar · cohort mechanics for Campus · ~2× blended ARPU vs vanilla event/SaaS

SHARED CREATOR ECONOMY

Marketplace for stages, classrooms, wearables, simulations · creator royalties · ticketing · payments · 97.5% creator share

UNITY ENGINE + BACKEND SERVICES
  • Real-time multi-user (50–50K concurrent)
  • Avatar streaming + spatial audio
  • Identity (account abstraction, no wallet)
  • Content servers / catalysts
  • Stripe + crypto-proxy payments
  • Cross-platform clients (web, mobile, desktop)
OPTION 3 · FORUM

How we win — combined economics.

$75M+ ARR

By month 30, blended across Stage + Campus + GaaS subscription layer.

GaaS retention engine ~doubles event ARPU on Stage and improves cohort retention on Campus. Highest ceiling of any option.

REVENUE LINES
Stage tickets + merch + tips
~$14M
Stage GaaS subscription (fan battle pass)
~$12M
Campus SaaS + enterprise implementations
~$35M
Shared creator marketplace (cross-vertical)
~$8M
Cross-pollination (artists on Campus, profs on Stage)
~$6M
PHASED ROLLOUT
PHASE 1 · MONTH 0–15

Stage launches first. Faster to market, validates creator economy + ticketing.

PHASE 2 · MONTH 12–24

Campus pilots layer on top. Reuse 70% of engine. First enterprise contracts close.

PHASE 3 · MONTH 24+

Cross-pollination GTM. Shared talent and marketplace become the moat.

OPTION 3 · FORUM

How we deliver — and what could kill it.

MAIN RISKS + KILL CRITERIA
Focus dilution. Classic two-product trap. Easy to be mediocre at both instead of great at one.
Brand split. Same brand for a Saturday night DJ and corporate compliance training is awkward. May need sub-brands.
Capital intensity. Forum needs ~1.5× the runway of Stage alone. Slower path to break-even.
KILL CRITERIA: Stage misses 12-month milestones, OR Campus pilots can't close by month 24. Either trigger reverts to single-vertical.
STAKEHOLDER ALIGNMENT
DAO
Friendly
Mixed bet, but creator-first thesis is preserved. Stage validates first.
MANA holders
Friendly
Stage drives volume. Campus is neutral. Net token utility grows.
LAND holders
Friendly
Both products can sit on LAND. Stage activates, Campus institutionalizes.
TEAM
80–120 people

Shared platform org (~50) + Stage BU (~20) + Campus BU (~30). Two GMs, one CEO. Two roadmaps, one engineering org.

FOUNDATION EXECUTION
Within mandate

Stage uses Regenesis Labs day one. Campus arm spins up as separate operational unit under DAO oversight at phase 2.

TIMELINE
12 → 30 months

Stage paid show at month 12. Campus first contract by month 18. $60M ARR target month 30.

DECISION

All four bets, side by side.

STAGE CAMPUS FORUM
Revenue modelHybrid + GaaS subB2B SaaS + GaaS subHybrid + GaaS sub
Legacy postureHard pivotSoft pivotHard pivot
Time to revenue~12 months18–24 months12 months
Time to $10M ARR20–26 months30–36 months20 months
Revenue ceiling$26M+ (w/ GaaS)$50M+$75M+
Risk of failureMediumLow (validated mkt)Medium-high
DefensibilityEvents DNA + GaaS retention + networkSwitching costs + LMS + cohort retentionAll three + creator econ
DAO alignmentFriendlyNeutralFriendly
MANA holder alignmentFriendlyTensionFriendly
LAND holder alignmentFriendlyFriendlyFriendly
Foundation executionWithin mandateNeeds new structureWithin mandate
Fit w/ DCL team todayHighMediumHigh
RECOMMENDATION

Build Forum.

Stage first, with the GaaS retention engine. Campus second, sharing the same engine and live ops mechanics.

01

It uses the only real DCL asset

Events DNA — Music Festival, Fashion Week — is the one piece of institutional muscle worth carrying forward. Stage activates it. Campus benefits from the brand halo.

02

Clear buyers, real revenue, GaaS-driven retention

Mid-tier artists with engaged fans, plus L&D / higher-ed with seven-figure budgets. The GaaS layer turns transactional events into recurring revenue. $75M+ ARR ceiling — no metaverse-adoption hope required.

03

Stakeholders stay aligned

Stage is DAO/MANA/LAND friendly across the board. Campus is neutral-to-positive. Forum is the only option that doesn't fracture our existing stakeholder base.

DECISION NEEDED NOW

What we need to commit to this quarter.

01

Approve the Forum thesis at DAO

Vote on the two-product strategy. Lock in budget for phase 1 (Stage) and conditional phase 2 (Campus).

02

Validate demand with 10 anchor artists

30-day discovery sprint with managers/labels. Letters of intent from 5+ artists by end of quarter.

03

Scope Campus B2B legal structure

Confirm whether Regenesis Labs can carry enterprise contracts, or if a sub-entity is required. Legal sprint.

04

Hire two leaders

GM-Stage with live events background. Engineering lead for the shared platform org. Both seats are unfilled today.

Inaction is the most expensive decision.